Dynamic Vaccine Allocation for Control of Human Transmissible Disease (preprint)

During pandemics, such as COVID-19, supplies of vaccines can be insufficient to meet all needs, particularly when vaccines first become available. Our study develops a dynamic methodology for vaccine allo- cation, segmented by region, age, and timeframe, using a time-sensitive, age-structured compartmental model. Based on the objective of mini- mizing a weighted sum of deaths and cases, we used the Sequential Least Squares Quadratic Programming method to search for a locally opti- mal COVID-19 vaccine allocation for the United States, for the period from December 16, 2020, to June 30, 2021, where regions corresponded to the 50 states in the United States (US). We also compared our solu- tion to actual allocations of vaccines. From our model, we estimate that approximately 1.8 million cases and 9 thousand deaths could have been averted in the US with an improved allocation. When case reduction is prioritized over death reduction, we found that young people (17 and younger) should receive priority over old people due to their potential to expose others. However, if death reduction is prioritized over case reduc- tion, we found that more vaccines should be allocated to older people, due to their propensity for severe disease. While we have applied our methodology to COVID-19, our approach generalizes to other human- transmissible diseases, with potential application to future epidemics.

Utility of monocyte distribution width in the differential diagnosis between simple and complicated diverticulitis: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Colonic diverticulitis is a leading cause of abdominal pain. The monocyte distribution width (MDW) is a novel inflammatory biomarker with prognostic significance for coronavirus disease and pancreatitis; however, no study has assessed its correlation with the severity of colonic diverticulitis. METHODS: This single-center retrospective cohort study included patients older than 18 years who presented to the emergency department between November 1, 2020, and May 31, 2021, and received a diagnosis of acute colonic diverticulitis after abdominal computed tomography. The characteristics and laboratory parameters of patients with simple versus complicated diverticulitis were compared. The significance of categorical data was assessed using the chi-square or Fisher's exact test. The Mann-Whitney U test was used for continuous variables. Multivariable regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of complicated colonic diverticulitis. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves were used to test the efficacy of inflammatory biomarkers in distinguishing simple from complicated cases. RESULTS: Of the 160 patients enrolled, 21 (13.125%) had complicated diverticulitis. Although right-sided was more prevalent than left-sided colonic diverticulitis (70% versus 30%), complicated diverticulitis was more common in those with left-sided colonic diverticulitis (61.905%, p = 0.001). Age, white blood cell (WBC) count, neutrophil count, C-reactive protein (CRP) level, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and MDW were significantly higher in the complicated diverticulitis group (p < 0.05). Logistic regression analysis indicated that the left-sided location and the MDW were significant and independent predictors of complicated diverticulitis. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was as follows: MDW, 0.870 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.784-0.956); CRP, 0.800 (95% CI, 0.707-0.892); NLR, 0.724 (95% CI, 0.616-0.832); PLR, 0.662 (95% CI, 0.525-0.798); and WBC, 0.679 (95% CI, 0.563-0.795). When the MDW cutoff was 20.38, the sensitivity and specificity were maximized to 90.5% and 80.6%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: A large MDW was a significant and independent predictor of complicated diverticulitis. The optimal cutoff value for MDW is 20.38 as it exhibits maximum sensitivity and specificity for distinguishing between simple and complicated diverticulitis The MDW may aid in planning antibiotic therapy for patients with colonic diverticulitis in the emergency department.

Vaccine Injury Compensation Program and COVID-19 Vaccines In Taiwan

Vaccination Injury Compensation Program (VICP) in Taiwan applies to all vaccinations, including publicly-funded and self-paid vaccines, as well as emergency authorized COVID-19 vaccines. Compensation is based on scientific principles and case data to determine the causal relationship. The VICP commissioners will consider relevant information and search for references to determine the causality. Therefore, the vaccinee does not need to bear the burden of proof. In addition to medical experts, the committee also includes non-medical members with legal and social justice background. Cases are reviewed and checked by the general assembly after preliminary review. Taiwan VICP application is an easy, open and transparent, faster process and the approval and payment standards are relatively looser than in other countries. The system is expected to be convenient and to protect the rights and interests of the people.

Role of anti-Müllerian hormone and testosterone in follicular growth: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND: Anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) is now considered the best serum biomarker of ovarian reserve, while basal sex hormones are classic markers used for assessing ovarian reserve. The interaction between AMH and sex hormones are complicated and not sufficiently addressed. In this study, we took diminished ovarian reserve (DOR) and polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS) as two extremes of ovarian reserve (deficient and excessive respectively) to investigate the role of AMH and sex hormones in follicular growth. METHODS: A retrospective cross-sectional survey was performed. The patients assessed AMH and basal sex hormones in the Second Hospital of Zhejiang University from April 2016 to March 2019 were involved in this study. Serum AMH and sex hormone concentrations were tested with electrochemiluminescence method. Stepwise linear regression and binary logistic regression was used to determine the predictors of AMH level and to explore the involved factors determining DOR and PCOS. RESULTS: In the present study, we found that age and follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) were main negative correlation factors, and luteinizing hormone (LH) and testosterone (T) were main positive factors of AMH. In DOR group, age, FSH and estradiol (E2) increased and T decreased, while in PCOS group, LH and T increased. Binary logistic regression found that age, weight, FSH, E2, and T were the significant factors which independently predicted the likelihood of DOR, and that age, body mass index (BMI), AMH, LH, and T predicted the likelihood of PCOS. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrated that age, FSH, and T were factors that most closely correlated with AMH level, and T was involved in both DOR and PCOS. Since DOR and PCOS are manifested with insufficient AMH and excessive AMH respectively, it is suggested that total testosterone correlated with AMH closely and plays an important role in follicular growth. More attention should be given to testosterone level during controlled ovarian hyperstimulation (COH) process.